Good news for data mining geeks: social network analysis is fast approaching widespread adoption, at least according to Gartner’s Hype Cycle Special Report for 2009.

Gartner’s annual report evaluates the maturity of 1,650 technologies and trends in 79 technology, topic and industry areas. Their hype cycle graphic provides a snapshot of these 79 areas, showing which topics are booming, which are busting, and which are approaching serious adoption among the mainstream.   Gartner terms this phase of adoption the “slope of enlightenment”, and according to their report, social network analysis is on its way up.

How far is social network analysis from truly being in the mainstream? Gartner estimates about 2-5 years, and classifies this technology as having “high benefit” potential for businesses and organizations.

Although there are many criticisms of the hype cycle, its prediction for social network analysis rings true. In our work, we definitely seeing a growing interest in social media measurement, and this will only increase as the results of social network studies move from academic journals and into the mainstream (for example, see last Sunday’s article in USA Today about “flocking behavior” on social networks)

So why the 2-5 year lag?  It seems even as the term “social network” becomes more common, people are still unsure about how (or if) they should use them. For example, Sentient Communications, a South African PR firm, recently conducted a survey on the use of Social Media by SA PR agencies. The survey revealed a few interesting results:

• 80% of agencies already use Social Media for business
• 41% see Social Media brining financial success
• 80% think it will become an increasingly valuable tool for PR strategists

The survey suggests that almost everyone sees social medias a “big big thing” for PR, but few are clear about how this translates into real results.

…agencies’ self-perception is one of an enthusiastic “Social Media w00t!”. However, looking at specific tactical questions tells another story – that the personal enthusiasm does not play out into client campaigns to nearly the same extent….Agencies in general seem to see themselves as leading the adoption with clients, rather than being pressed to do it, but everyone wants a piece of this new pie. As the use of Social Media increases, the discrepancy between the more than 80% who think it’s awesome, versus the 66% that have seen actual business success, will have to close.

Although this survey only applies to South African PR agencies, evidence suggests that the use of social media in the PR world is only going to increase.  For example, the 2009 Digital Readiness Report, a study conducted by iPressroom with support from PRSA, further indicates the growing importance of social media in PR.  For example, advanced social media skills are becoming increasingly important, at least from a hiring perspective:  their survey of PR hiring decision makers found that more than 80 percent said knowledge of social networks is either important or very important.

What does this mean for social network analysis and the slope of enlightenment?  In theory, this booming demand for social media expertise will translate into demand for more ways to measure the success of social media campaigns, particularly when it comes to engagement and ROI.  The result: more innovation from social network analysts.  Stay tuned: exciting times are ahead.